Predicting changes in hypertension control using electronic health records from a chronic disease management program

Picture of Jimeng Sun
Jimeng Sun
Picture of Candace McNaughton
Candace McNaughton
Picture of Ping Zhang
Ping Zhang
Picture of Aris Gkoulalas-Divanis
Aris Gkoulalas-Divanis
Picture of Joshua Denny
Joshua Denny
Picture of Jacqueline Kirby
Jacqueline Kirby
Picture of Thomas Lasko
Thomas Lasko
Picture of Alexander Saip
Alexander Saip
Picture of Bradley Malin
Bradley Malin
Teaser image


Objective: Common chronic diseases such as hypertension are costly and difficult to manage. Our ultimate goal is to use data from electronic health records to predict the risk and timing of deterioration in hypertension control. Towards this goal, this work predicts the transition points at which hypertension is brought into, as well as pushed out of, control. Method: In a cohort of 1294 patients with hypertension enrolled in a chronic disease management program at the Vanderbilt University Medical Center, patients are modeled as an array of features derived from the clinical domain over time, which are distilled into a core set using an information gain criteria regarding their predictive performance. A model for transition point prediction was then computed using a random forest classifier. Results: The most predictive features for transitions in hypertension control status included hypertension assessment patterns, comorbid diagnoses, procedures and medication history. The final random forest model achieved a c-statistic of 0.836 (95% CI 0.830 to 0.842) and an accuracy of 0.773 (95% CI 0.766 to 0.780). Conclusions: This study achieved accurate prediction of transition points of hypertension control status, an important first step in the long-term goal of developing personalized hypertension management plans.